Bitcoin sentiment reached extreme greed at 81, its highest reading since December 17, 2024. It returned after 616 days as Bitcoin gained more than 22% over seven days.
The index had stood at 36 one month earlier and 41 a week ago, both reflecting fear. CoinMarketCap called it the year’s fastest shift between sentiment extremes.
Sentiment Rebounds From February Capitulation
The gauge hit 5 on February 5, its 2026 low, signaling capitulation. Its climb to 81 within six months shows how rapidly market confidence recovered.
Alternative.me offered a cooler assessment. Its longer-running tracker remained in greed, with a reading about 6% below CoinMarketCap’s 81, although both measures showed the same overall upward direction.
The sentiment reversal followed a Bitcoin rally triggered by a United States Treasury announcement rather than an exchange-traded fund development. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled planned long-duration bond buybacks on Wednesday, raising the planned operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion each.
Bessent told CNBC the following day that the eventual total could increase further. However, no funds had moved because the broader program runs from September 9 through November 4.
Treasury Signal Drives Bitcoin Rally
The announcement changed market expectations before affecting liquidity. Long-bond yields dropped within minutes after approaching a nearly two-decade high following weak demand for 30-year debt.
Bitcoin retained its advance as yields moved higher on Thursday. Roughly $3 billion in short positions were liquidated the next day, forcing purchases that accelerated the increase.
Bitcoin rose approximately 24% during the week, its strongest weekly gain since 2024, while outperforming the broader crypto market. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score climbed from 30 to 80, its highest since October 2025, as eight of ten indicators turned bullish.
CryptoQuant said the market had entered the early stages of a new bull market but stopped short of confirmation. It wants Bitcoin to close a week above its 365-day moving average near $83,000.
LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger identified the May 2026 high of $82,820 as another threshold. A break above that level would confirm a cycle bottom for some observers and reopen the path toward $100,000.
Leverage and Whale Selling Raise Risks
Funding rates paid by leveraged long traders reached a 20-month high. Similar conditions preceded several sharper Bitcoin pullbacks during the previous two years, reflecting increased reliance on borrowed capital.
Short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22, CryptoQuant reported. That included a record $614 million on August 20.
Exchange inflows also reached roughly 53,000 BTC, their highest level since June. Traders’ unrealized profit margins rose to 20.5%, while Bitcoin previously dropped about 30% after the measure reached 19% in early May.
