Strategy Bitcoin signals remained unclear after Michael Saylor posted the company’s purchase chart on X on Sunday, July 26, with the caption, “We’re gonna need another color.”
The message marked his fifth teaser since Strategy last disclosed a Bitcoin purchase on June 22. The company has now gone four weeks without adding Bitcoin, its longest pause in two years. MSTR trades as a leveraged proxy for Strategy’s purchases.
Sunday chart no longer guarantees a buy
For years, a Sunday chart from Saylor preceded a Monday 8-K filing announcing another Bitcoin acquisition. That pattern has weakened. His June 28 post said, “We’re gonna need more charts,” but Strategy introduced a new capital framework. A July 5 post came before the company’s largest Bitcoin sale.
Saylor mentioned “green dots” in late November, one day before Strategy announced a $1.44 billion reserve and purchased 130 BTC. On January 4, he asked followers, “Orange or Green?” when discussing whether coins or cash would follow.
The post generated more than 11,000 likes and over 1,400 replies. Saylor did not explain the caption, and Strategy confirmed no transaction occurred.
Falling mNAV changes capital priorities
Strategy’s enterprise mNAV dropped below 1 on June 27, placing MSTR at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings. Issuing shares to fund purchases then reduces Bitcoin per share instead of increasing it. Cash is required for preferred stock dividends, including STRC’s 12% rate.
Strategy has completed 113 purchases totaling 843,775 BTC at an average price of $75,476. The holdings cost $63.69 billion and were worth about $55.1 billion with Bitcoin at $65,283.96, leaving an unrealized shortfall near $8.6 billion.
The late-June framework authorized a $1 billion digital credit securities buyback, a $1 billion common stock buyback, and up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales. Strategy revised its mNAV calculation on July 23 and said earlier figures are not comparable. MSTR closed Friday at $91.67, down from $94.85 a week earlier.
Strategy builds a larger cash reserve
Between July 13 and July 19, Strategy sold 2,732,318 MSTR shares for net proceeds of $263.5 million without buying Bitcoin. Its July 20 SEC filing showed a $3.225 billion cash reserve, covering 1.8 years of dividend commitments.
The company can still issue up to $23.53 billion in common stock. CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno urged Strategy to rebuild cash after reserves fell about 38% from early 2026.
Moreno said dividend obligations rose fourfold in six months to $1.2 billion, while coverage fell from more than seven years to about 14 months.
“Buying whenever capital is available is not a strategy,” he said, calling it “a formula for accumulating at cycle peaks.” Strategy will report second-quarter results after the U.S. market closes Thursday, July 30.
