Prediction markets recorded their strongest month yet as trading activity accelerated across sports, politics and cryptocurrency.
The sector benefited from rising participation and growing interest in event-based contracts. October also brought new milestones for leading platforms, particularly Kalshi and Polymarket.
The latest figures highlight how quickly prediction markets have expanded ahead of major U.S. political and sporting events.
Prediction markets volume climbs 53.9% to record $123.3 billion
Prediction markets generated $123.3 billion in trading volume during October, marking their highest monthly total on record. Data from Artemis showed that the sector crossed the $100 billion threshold for the first time. The figure represented a 53.9% increase from September’s previous record.
Trading activity also reached a new milestone, with 642.9 million transactions recorded throughout the month. The increase reflected stronger participation across major platforms and several market categories.
Kalshi dominated the sector with $98.2 billion in October trading volume. That represented approximately 80% of the entire prediction markets industry. The platform also processed 465.5 million trades during the month.
Polymarket ranked second, recording $20.2 billion in volume and 148 million trades. Although its activity remained considerably below Kalshi’s, the platform maintained a substantial share of the market.
Smaller platforms also recorded notable growth. Nadex crossed $2 billion in monthly trading volume, while Rothera surpassed $1 billion for the second consecutive month.
Football season drives Kalshi to three consecutive weekly records
Sports markets provided the biggest contribution to October’s prediction markets activity. The NFL and college football seasons attracted significant trading interest, helping Kalshi establish three consecutive weekly volume records.
The strongest performance came during the week ending October 25. Kalshi generated more than $25 billion in trading volume over those seven days.
Its combos product played a major role in that performance. Data from Ticker Tracker showed that combos accounted for 67.6% of Kalshi’s total October volume. Many of these contracts involved long-shot outcomes priced below one cent.
However, Kalshi’s contract valuation method adds an important distinction to the reported figures. The platform records each contract at its full $1 payout value, regardless of the purchase price.
Consequently, a parlay purchased for less than one cent can still contribute $1 to reported trading volume. This accounting method can increase headline volume figures without reflecting the actual cash traders spend.
The record number of trades therefore provides another measure of the sector’s expansion. October’s 642.9 million transactions indicate substantial growth in recorded market activity alongside higher reported volumes.
Midterm elections and Bitcoin markets expand trading activity
Political and cryptocurrency contracts also contributed to October’s record prediction markets volume. The November 3 U.S. midterm elections attracted increased activity across political markets.
Midterm election contracts exceeded $1.4 billion in trading volume. Kalshi accounted for nearly $1.1 billion of that total. By October 31, its House control market had recorded approximately $170 million in trades. Its Senate control market reached nearly $111 million.
Cryptocurrency markets also crossed an important threshold. Combined crypto trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $3 billion for the first time in October. The milestone occurred for two consecutive weeks.
Kalshi’s 15-minute Bitcoin up/down contract emerged as a notable product. It allows traders to speculate on whether Bitcoin finishes higher or lower within each 15-minute period.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s regulated U.S. platform recorded nearly $10 billion in October volume. That marked a new monthly record, approximately 15% above its previous high.
Combos also gained traction on Polymarket, accounting for more than 20% of its volume within days of their wider rollout. The platform additionally attracted trading activity around Brazil’s presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s October interest rate decision.
With midterm contracts approaching settlement after Tuesday’s vote, political markets remain active. Football markets also have the remainder of the regular season ahead, extending one of October’s biggest sources of prediction markets activity.
