In a landmark development in the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the case is inching toward a resolution, with recent developments significantly tilting the scales in favor of Ripple. Legal expert Jeremy Hogan has been at the forefront, providing critical insights into the subtleties of this complex case, recently highlighting how the dynamics have evolved significantly after the dismissal of charges against Ripple executives.
Hogan points out that the current phase of the case has transcended beyond unexpected twists or revelations, with the core facts firmly laid out. The anticipation now builds around the final verdict from the court, expected to emerge in the coming year, which will principally influence Ripple’s operations and future.
There’s growing conjecture around a potential settlement between the two parties amid these developments. However, Hogan notes that while Ripple and the SEC have the prerogative to pursue an appeal, the statistics are stacked against the latter. In its uphill battle, the SEC holds a mere 14.2% probability of turning the tide in an appellate court, especially considering the trial judge’s comprehensive opinion that has scarcely left room for the Commission’s arguments.
Hogan further explores the scenario of an unlikely triumph for the SEC in an appeal slated for 2025, elucidating that such a victory would plunge the case back into judicial review due to the stipulations of the original order. It’s not merely about clinching a win; it signifies embarking on a cumbersome journey comprising additional trials and, possibly, a new series of appeals.
One of the more ambiguous elements Hogan addresses is the court’s current reticence on matters concerning “other distributions” of XRP. He forecasts that the rulings likely favor Ripple if these matters necessitate further attention. The intricate issue of programmatic sales also looms, potentially calling for extended legal discussions if the appellate authorities find the initial verdicts unsatisfactory.
For the SEC, securing a win at this stage would be tantamount to a Herculean feat, requiring not just the rejection of a settlement but also succeeding against substantial odds in an appeal, sustaining prolonged legal battles, and emerging victorious in any ensuing appeals. Interestingly, Hogan’s commentary needs to account for unforeseeable factors, such as legislative interventions or shifts in the political landscape, which could unpredictably impact the proceedings.
What’s particularly striking is that Hogan’s analysis reflects the prevailing mood within the SEC itself. Sources indicate a resonance with the prognosis of Ripple’s impending success among important SEC personnel. This recognition, coupled with Hogan’s incisive evaluation, all but sets the stage for what appears to be an impending closure in this high-stakes legal drama.