Last month, the Bitcoin mining activity considerably decreased as the network hashrate decreased by 4%, which is the greatest fall since April 2024.
As VanEck pointed out, such miner capitulation is historically a sign of good future returns on long-term BTC holders. Traders are purchasing the dip despite a 9 percent fall in prices recently.
Declining hashrate is a delicate indication of favourable paybacks
According to VanEck research chiefs Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush, the history of dropping Bitcoin hashrate has tended to be followed by a significant surge in the market. The history has demonstrated that Bitcoin afforded positive returns 90 days later in 65% of occasions after a 30-day decline in hashrate and 54% time after surpassing gains of a hashrate.
There were also greater 6-month returns, which increased 77% on average when the 90-day hashrate growth was negative, with the average return of 72%. Both periods of increasing hash rate generated positive returns on six months 61 percent of the time, with a lesser average return of 48%.
The figures suggest that a declining hashrate may act as an excellent entry-point to long-term investors, providing nearly 2,400 basis points higher 6-month returns than when the hashrate is rising. This historical trend has been 4% in the current decrease in the network power of Bitcoin, which may indicate the bottom of the market.
Mining in China cripples the hashrate
Regulatory measures in the Xinjiang area of China that saw the government close 1.3 GW of mining capacity have intensified the current slowdown in Bitcoin mining. Jack Kong, the former head of Canaan, affirmed that around 400,000 of the mining machines were lost, consuming net network rate by 100 exahashes per second within one day. China used to be the third largest mining producer in the world, with a mining contribution amounting to approximately 14 per cent of the total network hashrates.
Bitcoin mining is still carried out in several nations despite the crackdown of China in other countries such as Russia, France, Iran, El Salvador, UAE, Oman, Ethiopia, Argentina, Kenya, and Japan. This network support on a global scale adds stability to the network even in times of temporary disruption.
Bitcoin pricing and on-chain activity
The value of Bitcoin is down by 9% in the last 30 days, reaching its bottom point on November 22, at approximately 80,700. The volatility of the market reached more than 45%, which was not observed since April 2025. On-chain statistics indicate that the hash rate has decreased by 1 percent, daily fees are reduced by 14% and the number of active addresses has fallen slightly.
On the upside, the digital asset traders accumulated the maximum number of 42,000 BTC in the past month, the highest amount purchased since mid-July to mid-August 2025. The amount of BTC held by traders has increased to 1.09 million total, being an indicator of increasing demand in a weak market.
According to VanEck’s analysis, the current decrease in hashrate and miner capitulation can be taken as a positive sign. Traditionally, these phases have been beneficial to long-term holders of BTC, and continued accumulation by traders may help in maintaining BTC prices.
