Polymarket was the most visited decentralized app in January. The app almost caught up with the traffic on Robinhood, reaching a peak on-chain traffic as well, while expanding its mainstream presence.
Polymarket was the most visited crypto-native app, logging both peak on-chain volumes and site ranking. The app’s founder, Shayne Coplan, marked the achievement. Polymarket was among the most popular on-chain use cases in January, as activity shifted to the most liquid markets. The app also posted peak USDC volumes, leading to a partnership with Circle for using the native stablecoin version.
Polymarket ranks ahead of Kalshi in site visits
Polymarket is still ahead of Kalshi on several metrics, including nearly four times as many site visits. Most of the Polymarket traffic comes from the USA, after the app started offering prediction pairs. Polymarket is still drawing international traffic, but has complied with US regulations to offer its brand of probability trading.
Multiple prediction apps are competing for the top spot. Polymarket has broadened its outreach on social media while also encouraging smart betting. The platform gained an edge on Kalshi by allowing smart betting and not playing against ‘sharps’. The two apps are competing for user appeal with shopping vouchers and even a free grocery store.
Most of the expansion in the past month came from retail predictions, totaling over $12B in trading volumes. Polymarket remains the leader in current events and politics predictions, with a big lead against Kalshi outside the sports predictions market. Mobile usage picked up for Polymarket in the past three months, with gradual growth on all devices.
Polymarket search volumes also moved ahead of Kalshi in the past three months. The platform’s activity was driven by the most diverse prediction markets, categorized as ‘other’. Sports, politics, and crypto made up the bulk of activity. Top bets as of February 6 included sports events, the potential US strikes against Iran, as well as a short-term 15-minute market on the performance of BTC.
Polymarket is growing based on highly active players making more than five predictions on average. The platform uses a mix of bots and organic activity, while being heavily promoted through copy-trading and influencers. Most of the active trading on Polymarket happens on contested issues, where the odds are between 40% and 60%. The other big subset is almost-resolved issues with a probability of 80% to 90%.
