JPMorgan forecasts gold to trade sideways in the coming weeks before rising to $4,500 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, after lowering its near-term outlook on July 3.
The bank expects slower momentum before a later recovery, citing weaker demand from major buying sectors and renewed sensitivity to real interest rates.
The Wall Street bank now projects gold to average $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter before climbing to $4,500 in Q4, according to a Reuters report. While the outlook has been adjusted, JPMorgan still expects prices to move higher later in the year, only at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
JPMorgan forecasts gold near-term range-bound trading
JPMorgan described the current gold market as “range-bound,” indicating that prices may move sideways before the expected second-half recovery develops. The revised view reflects reduced buying strength across key demand centers, which has limited the pace of gold’s advance.
The bank also pointed to gold’s increased sensitivity to real interest rates. That shift has made the metal less attractive compared with other assets in the short term, creating a ceiling for prices while investors assess relative returns.
This recalibration does not remove JPMorgan’s broader bullish view. Instead, it signals that the bank expects a period of consolidation before stronger demand drivers return later in the final months of 2026.
Weaker demand affects gold price outlook
The near-term adjustment is tied mainly to weaker purchasing power among gold’s major demand centers. JPMorgan said this softer demand has become an important factor behind the slower expected price movement.
Gold’s role as a defensive asset remains intact, but the short-term market setup has changed. With real interest rates influencing investor behavior more directly, the metal faces limited upside while demand conditions remain softer.
According to Binance News, the bank’s range-bound description suggests traders should expect limited movement in the coming weeks. The forecast still points to a later climb, with the third quarter average set at $4,300 per ounce and the fourth quarter target at $4,500.
Long-term gold outlook stays positive
JPMorgan maintained a positive medium-to-long-term outlook, supported by structural demand trends. The bank cited continued central bank purchases, stronger physical demand, and institutional portfolio allocation toward gold as key supports.
Central banks around the world are still adding to gold reserves at an elevated pace. Physical demand is also expected to continue strengthening over the coming months, while institutions continue using gold as a hedge. The bank expects these trends to support gold beyond 2026.
These factors reinforce gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and reserve currency alternative. JPMorgan expects those forces to remain important beyond 2026, even if short-term price action remains limited for retail traders and broader market participants.
