Arthur Hayes warned that 99% of altcoins could eventually collapse to zero, but he said such failures are part of a normal market cycle.
Speaking at Consensus Miami 2026, the BitMEX co-founder argued that crypto markets are not unusual because most risky assets lose relevance over time.
He said weak tokens, like failed public companies, leave room for stronger projects to gain capital, users, and market attention.
Hayes framed the warning as a market cleanup rather than a rejection of crypto. He compared altcoins with companies once listed in the S&P 500, saying many businesses have disappeared since 1929 while the broader stock market survived.
In his view, crypto moves through the same survival test, although token markets may expose weak projects faster because trading runs continuously.
Hayes Compares Weak Tokens With Failed Stocks
Hayes said the word coin often makes crypto sound unusual to traditional investors.
However, he argued that many tokens should be viewed as software projects that seek users, revenue, and product-market fit.
Some software products grow into durable networks, while many others fail after attracting early attention.
He said this process supports capital formation because developers can raise funds, test ideas, and let markets decide which products deserve continued backing.
The outcome can be harsh for holders of weak tokens, yet Hayes described it as a familiar feature of open markets. In his assessment, failed altcoins do not prove that the entire sector lacks value.
Bitcoin Outlook Tied to Fiat Liquidity
Hayes also shifted attention to Bitcoin and argued that its long-term price depends more on fiat money creation than political approval.
He said Bitcoin’s fair value should be judged by the amount of fiat money available now, the amount likely to exist later, and the pace at which governments expand supply.
He said the industry often focuses on regulation, traditional finance partnerships, and banking access.
Still, he argued that Bitcoin reached major market value because it allows users to transfer value outside normal bank rails and state-controlled systems.
Hayes said this utility matters more than whether regulators endorse the asset.
Regulation Debate Remains Secondary
Hayes said centralized crypto firms may support regulation because rules can protect established business models.
He added that lobbying for favorable treatment is expected in major financial markets, especially in the United States and other large economies.
However, he argued that regulation does not decide whether Bitcoin or crypto works. Hayes pointed to Bitcoin trading around $82,000 as evidence of demand linked to its function rather than official approval.
He said Bitcoin would lose much of its purpose if it became only another fixed-supply asset held inside traditional finance balance sheets.
