The Trump-Iran war has removed more than 500 million barrels from the global oil supply and wiped out over $50 billion in crude value within about seven weeks.
The disruption began in late February and continues to weigh on energy markets as supply chains struggle to stabilize.
Analysts warn that the impact could persist for months or even years due to ongoing damage and uncertainty.
Supply shock shakes global energy balance
The scale of the disruption is significant and ranks among the largest energy shocks in modern history based on Kpler data.
The missing volume includes crude and condensate that never reached the market, creating a supply gap that is already affecting pricing, storage, and trade flows worldwide.
Analysts estimate that 500 million barrels equate to nearly ten weeks of global aviation fuel demand and around eleven days of zero road traffic globally.
It also represents about one month of oil consumption in the United States and more than a month of demand in Europe.
The volume could supply global shipping for four months or meet several years of fuel needs for the US military.
Inventory data shows further strain across the system. Global onshore crude stockpiles declined by about 45 million barrels in April alone, while supply outages have averaged around 12 million barrels per day since late March.
These figures highlight the depth of the disruption and the difficulty of restoring balance in the near term.
Strait of Hormuz tensions keep markets on edge
Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire linked to regional tensions, but the risk of another closure continues to unsettle markets.
The waterway remains one of the most critical energy routes, previously handling about one-fifth of global LNG trade.
Market participants are closely watching the situation as prediction markets indicate a $44 chance that US oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the strait is shut again.
Political signals remain mixed, with the United States indicating it will not respond to pressure while negotiations continue without a clear timeline.
Shipping activity has started to resume cautiously. Several LNG vessels from Qatar are moving toward the strait, marking the first such shipments since the conflict began on February 28.
A convoy of oil tankers has also entered the route, signaling partial normalization, though risks remain elevated.
Recovery faces long delays and structural damage
Despite the reopening of key routes, recovery across the region is expected to be slow. Damage to infrastructure, including refineries and LNG facilities, is likely to reduce supply capacity for several years.
Repairs at major sites could remove up to 12.8 million metric tons per year from global LNG supply over the next three to five years.
Production challenges are also emerging in key oil-producing areas. Heavy crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq may take four to five months to return to normal output levels, which will extend supply tightness into the summer period.
Qatar’s export capacity has already been reduced by about 17% due to earlier disruptions, adding further strain to global gas markets. Even with shipping lanes open, the broader energy system faces a prolonged adjustment period.
The Trump-Iran war continues to reshape global energy dynamics, with lasting consequences for supply stability, pricing trends, and geopolitical risk.
