The Consumer Rights Ministry of Spain has placed a temporary ban on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket for not having gambling licenses to operate in the country. Spain is one of the few European nations that have banned prediction markets, classifying them as a form of gambling.
The temporary ban in Spain is expected to last for about 3-4 months as regulators finalize their investigations. Spanish authorities have also noted that unauthorized operators do not implement safety measures, such as strict identity verification and access controls. These platforms also lack control access measures for self-excluded individuals or those who are legally banned from gambling. France previously blocked these platforms due to similar concerns about event-based gambling without proper licensing.
ISPs in Spain to implement network-level blocks
Spanish internet service providers (ISPs) are enforcing government-ordered blocks to implement coordinated network-level restrictions. The Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs, and the 2030 Agenda has issued an official order that the Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ) is using to compel Spanish ISPs to cut off local access. Major national telecommunications providers are also expected to deploy specific protocols to effect the temporary block.
The ISPs’ Domain Name System (DNS) servers will redirect requests when users in Spain attempt to access the Kalshi and Polymarket domains. Notably, traffic will be redirected to a government landing page displaying an official advisory notice, rather than to the platforms’ actual IP addresses. ISPs will also block traffic at the network layer to prevent users from switching to DNS servers such as Cloudflare or Google DNS to bypass DNS blocks.
In addition, the IP addresses linked to Kalshi and Polymarket will be added to routing blacklists. All incoming and outgoing data packets trying to communicate with those two destinations will be automatically dropped. Additionally, major Spanish ISPs are expected to use DPI tools to monitor packet headers in real time. The ISPs’ hardware will detect and block the connections when users try to reach the specific content delivery networks (CDNs) or API endpoints used by the two prediction markets.
Regulators around the world are rushing to gain control of prediction markets as the sector surpasses $127 billion in total global trading volume. These platforms have completely blurred the lines between speculative sportsbooks and financial derivatives. There is a mismatch in how governments and innovators define the use of these platforms, arising from differences in how they define them.
Meanwhile, operators and advocates view prediction markets as powerful tools for societal forecasting by leveraging “the wisdom of crowds” through financial incentives. These platforms produce real-time, accurate data on global events that outperform traditional polling. Proponents also argue that these prediction markets function like financial markets. They allow institutions to hedge real-world risks such as policy changes, geopolitical shifts, or inflation.
