A Polymarket bettor is now $78 million richer, thanks to Donald Trump’s victory in the United States presidential election. According to Chainalysis, the Frenchman, Theo, made the profits flowing bets worth $38 million on positions representing a Trump victory.
In its analysis, Chainalysis said more than four accounts on Polymarket were tied to Theo. The Frenchman reportedly controlled nine accounts, using each one to place bets on a Trump victory. The on-chain analysis platform mentioned that based on several metrics, they discovered that nine accounts were controlled by one entity.
The analysis was based on related patterns such as funding patterns, transaction times, and cash out to a distinct wallet address. With the development, Theo becomes the highest winner in political betting. Meanwhile, luck did not smile on every bettor as some lost significant amounts following Kamala Harris’ loss to Donald Trump. The highest recorded amount lost to bets on Harris is $5 million.
Polymarket’s popularity shot up during the election period
Polymarket was also one of the major benefits of Trump’s victory. The platform became the darling of bettors following its odds predicting a win for the eventual winner Trump. However, the move did not come without questions over its integrity after several influential figures including Elon Musk used its polls.
Mainstream media was awash with several opinions, most predicting a close call between the major competitors. Polymarket stood alone, showcasing its odds that favored Trump to win the elections. Around October, odds on the platform showed that Trump was in a clear lead by 32% over Harris. However, most people questioned the influence of large whale bets, noting that their huge bets were swinging the odds in Trump’s favor.
The election result proved Polymarket right, with Trump winning by a huge margin. During the process, Trump cleared both the Electoral College and popular votes. Trump’s victory also translated to other Republicans as the GOP swept the Congress, regaining seats in the Senate and House of Representatives.
Similarly, Polymarket predicted the swing state elections correctly, ahead of other mainstream media. Hours after the Associated Press called the presidential race in the swing states, Polymarket predicted the odds of the eventual winner at 95%. While Polymarket posted its 95% odds on Tuesday at 11:43 PM, AP called its odds at 8:43 AM on Wednesday.
The future of betting at a glance
While the United States elections are over, Polymarket has cemented a place among the mainstream betting sites and polls. The platform recorded $3.64 billion from the US elections markets, surging above other platforms like Robinhood, Kalshi, and Interactive Brokers.
However, it needs to stabilize and maintain activity and interaction after the election. Although new post-election markets are on the platform, it is unknown if the betting community will be as invested as they were during the election. Some markets include whether Kamala Harris will attend Trump’s inauguration or if Elon Musk will be in Trump’s cabinet.
There are reports that the platform intends to transition into sports betting, choosing a sustainable and long-term route instead of periodic events. Still, it could be subjected to regulatory checks over the next few months. Reports say it is presently on France’s radar, with the country’s national gaming authority (ANJ) looking at a likely ban if it doesn’t comply with local laws.