Iran presently owns over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% and nobody knows if it was destroyed or buried under rubble. After the United States and Iran burned the locations of its nuclear sites, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, there are concerns that Iran may have used the chaos to hide its most dangerous nuclear weapon.
The fear is not about the war, it is about global inflation. Nuclear uncertainty makes it hard, and when oil traders and policymakers are aware of what’s coming, prices are on the rise, supply chains panic, and governments hoard. The bombs may have landed in Iran, but the economic pressure is global. According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump confirmed that the strikes involved bunker-busting bombs, claiming the sites were “obliterated.”
But the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the body in charge of monitoring the nuclear program in Iran, said the real damage is still unknown—especially at Fordow, the underground facility responsible for producing most of Iran’s high-level enriched uranium. Rafael Grossi, the head of the agency, said on Monday that the centrifuges were likely badly damaged, but there’s no clear evidence yet that the actual stockpile, about 9 tonnes in total, including the 400+ kg enriched close to weapons-grade, was hit.
Iran may have moved its uranium before the bombs hit
According to Grossi. Iran had notified him on June 13, just hours before Israel launched its first attacks, that it was “taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials.” He didn’t go into details, but officials think it means the uranium was quietly relocated. A source familiar with the situation said much of the enriched uranium from Fordow appeared to have been moved “days in advance,” almost like Tehran was warned.
A satellite image showing trucks lined up near the facility before the strike backs up that claim. That claim was dismissed by Trump. In an interview with Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, he insisted: “They didn’t move anything. It’s very dangerous to do. It is very heavy — very, very heavy. It’s a very hard thing to do.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said he hadn’t seen any intelligence proving Iran relocated its uranium.
The search for the material is expected to take a long process. Olli Heinonen, the IAEA’s top inspector between 2005 and 2010, told Reuters that verifying the stockpile’s status could take months. “There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” he said. It’ll involve forensics, environmental samples, and complex recovery operations. Iran, on the other hand, has maintained that it has done nothing wrong.
Earlier this month, the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors passed a resolution accusing Iran of violating its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Tehran responded by voting in parliament to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. It also accused the watchdog of helping justify the airstrikes by providing diplomatic cover, a claim that the IAEA has denied.
Grossi said his team can’t confirm if the nuclear work in Iran is peaceful, noting that there is also no solid evidence of a coordinated weapons program. Still, without knowing what happened to that 400 kg of enriched uranium, governments are forced to make risk calls. Heinonen said transparency from the agency will be key. “Member states can then make their risk assessments,” he said. Still though, no matter which side is right, it wouldn’t end well for the world’s economy.