Quantum computers might endanger Bitcoin security far sooner than many experts thought. Google reports that new advances suggest the ability to crack cryptographic systems, including Bitcoin wallets, is now twenty times easier than was originally expected. Last December, Google launched their most advanced quantum chip, Willow which they believe could defeat Bitcoin’s encryption in only two days.
Google highlights accelerated threat to Bitcoin
Google announced that the Willow chip can solve problems in five minutes that would take conventional supercomputers 10 septillion years. Some experts believe such capabilities could potentially overpower Bitcoin’s hash rate and alter the blockchain within minutes. Google’s Quantum Research Scientist Craig Gidney noted that this progress significantly reduces the resources needed for quantum attacks. His new estimate suggests that 2048-bit RSA encryption, previously thought to require 20 million qubits to break, could now be cracked in under a week using fewer than one million noisy qubits.
Gidney emphasized that while digital assets remain secure for now, the rapid pace of development is a signal for the cryptocurrency industry to take action. He said the future trajectory of quantum computing poses a legitimate threat to encryption-based systems, including Bitcoin.
Breakthroughs in Quantum algorithms and error correction
The company notes that the progress was driven by breakthroughs in algorithms and error correction. The research team has found a way to speed up one of the difficult methods used in encryption, known as modular exponentiation. Moreover, they increased error correction by three times, permitting more quantum work to be done in the same size of physical space. The method called magic state cultivation was also added, helping the team carry out reliable quantum operations and save resources. Thanks to these improvements, doing complicated quantum work requires less hardware and time. Elliptic curve cryptography, as used in Bitcoin, is as vulnerable as RSA. If quantum computers attack RSA ahead of schedule, Bitcoin’s time at risk could be shorter than we thought before.
Project 11 and industry response to Quantum threat
A research group named Project 11 has introduced an $85,000 bounty to test quantum attacks on a simplified version of Bitcoin’s encryption. The team is experimenting with keys between 1 and 25 bits to evaluate the risk posed by Shor’s algorithm. Google also warned that bad actors may already be collecting encrypted data with the intention of decrypting it when quantum computers become more powerful.The National Institute of Standards and Technology has advised phasing out weak systems by 2030. However, Google’s findings suggest this schedule may need to be revised.