Bitcoin’s bull run shows no signs of slowing down, with experts predicting that the rally could continue for another year. Currently, Bitcoin is 624 days into its bull cycle, and while gains have been significant, they pale in comparison to previous cycles.
The last bull market from 2019 to 2022 saw Bitcoin surge 20 times from its trough to peak. In contrast, the current cycle has only achieved a 3.5x increase, indicating that there could still be substantial room for growth.
According to data analysis from Bybit and BlockScholes, this bull run may have around 350 days left, suggesting nearly another year of potential growth for Bitcoin. As the rally continues, these projections raise expectations for Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs.
Unique market behavior
This bull market is exhibiting different characteristics from past cycles. Typically, when Bitcoin’s price rises, altcoins like Ethereum follow suit, benefiting from Bitcoin’s momentum. However, this time, Bitcoin’s rise has yet to be accompanied by significant gains in the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has been inching upwards, Ethereum and other altcoins have remained relatively flat, and Bitcoin itself has not seen the successive new highs usually expected during a bull run.
In previous bull markets, Bitcoin’s peaks were often accompanied by a surge in altcoins, leading to a market-wide frenzy before an eventual correction. The absence of this pattern in the current cycle could indicate that Bitcoin’s actual peak has yet to be reached. The recent consolidation in Bitcoin’s price, which has been trading within a tight range rather than surging, suggests that the market may be gathering momentum for further growth.
Institutional demand and market dynamics
Institutional demand has played a significant role in the current bull market. Until March 2024, spot ETFs steadily increased their Bitcoin holdings as institutional investors poured into the market. This influx of institutional capital helped drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs earlier in the year. However, since mid-March, the inflow of capital into these ETFs has slowed, leading to a stall in price growth.
The pause in institutional buying has coincided with Bitcoin’s halving event on April 20, 2024, which traditionally drives prices higher due to reduced supply. However, the price action following the halving has been more subdued than expected, reflecting the slowdown in institutional demand. Despite this, Bybit and BlockScholes believe the bull run is not over. Bitcoin has a solid performance history after halving events, and the current cycle may still follow this pattern.
Market sentiment and prospects
Market sentiment has turned somewhat bearish, with indicators suggesting caution among traders. Embedded volatility in derivatives markets reflects this cautious approach. However, low sentiment does not always signal the end of a bull run. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has often rebounded strongly from periods of negative sentiment.
BlockScholes’ analysis suggests that the current downbeat mood may be temporary. The market has demonstrated resilience in the past and could do so again. If Bitcoin continues to build momentum, it may push through this rough patch and extend its upward trend, potentially reaching new highs in the coming months. With nearly a year potentially left in this bull run, Bitcoin’s future remains uncertain, but the possibility of continued gains is on the horizon.