The crypto regulatory landscape in the United States might soon see a defining shift as Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) draw nearer to their legal showdown. Attorney Jeremy Hogan’s forecast on the matter is the epicenter of recent discussions within the crypto law domain. While the SEC recently faced a setback with U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres ruling against its interlocutory appeal certification, Hogan of Hogan & Hogan Law Firm presents a strategic outlook on the possible trajectories the case may take.
With the case involving Ripple’s top executives, Chris Larsen and Brad Garlinghouse, set for April 23, 2024, Hogan offers a 39.546 percent chance it’ll see its day in court. Such an outcome would mean that the verdict appeal would probably roll out in 2025, culminating in a Second Circuit judgment by 2026.
But the legal road could be more complex. Hogan speculates on a 32.113 percent probability that the SEC might steer the ship toward a settlement. This strategic move would yield more than a definitive verdict. Still, it could also fast-track the appeal timeline by almost a year, ultimately leading to a remedies lawsuit by mid-August 2026.
The wildcard in Hogan’s forecast is the third scenario, hovering at an 18.987 percent likelihood: a court-ordered settlement session that nullifies the SEC’s grievances against Ripple and its leaders. Despite the allure of this outcome, Hogan remarks on the SEC’s apparent hesitation towards an early resolution. Still, if the stars align, the crypto community might mark December 21, 2023, as a historic settlement date.