China’s exports rose in March, up by 12.4% from a year earlier. During the same period, imports dropped by 4.3% to $211 billion, leaving a trade surplus of about $102 billion.
Businesses were rushing to ship their goods before higher U.S. tariffs took effect. The jump in exports shows efforts by Chinese companies to counter a series of tariff hikes ordered by the U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump initially announced a 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China after taking office. He later raised it to 20%, before pushing it to 145% on most Chinese exports into the U.S. That situation has driven Chinese exporters to accelerate shipments to American buyers, hoping to evade the latest rises in import duties.
China’s trade balance has been in the spotlight for some years. In 2024, the country’s trade surplus increased by $992.2 billion, with exports up by 5.4%. Customs Administration data shows China’s trade surplus with the United States stood at $27.6 billion in March, boosted by a 4.5% rise in exports to that market. Over the first quarter, the surplus reached $76.6 billion, despite only a 2.3% increase in exports for the first two months of the year.
“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of ‘Liberation Day,’” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, in a note to clients. “But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” he added. “We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”
China’s exports on the rise as the country says it will fight back
Participants also point to domestic factors undermining import growth, highlighted by the 4.3% drop in imports. While Chinese imports of crude oil rose in March, imports of soybeans, coal, iron ore, and unwrought copper dropped. Imports from the United States may be feeling the effects of the tariff dispute, with total soybean imports diving 36.8% year-on-year in March.
Meanwhile, Beijing has said it will keep fighting the U.S. tariffs “to the end.” It wants to protect the economy from “external shocks.” On Friday, President Xi Jinping told Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing that China and the European Union should work together to oppose “unilateral acts of bullying,” according to the Xinhua news agency.
Economists have also revisited their outlook for China’s full-year growth. Goldman Sachs reduced its 2025 GDP forecast to 4% from 4.5%. On the other hand, Citi reduced its projection from 4.7% to 4.2%. These revised numbers fall short of the government’s official target of “around 5%.”