His outlook considers how artificial intelligence, monetary policy, and institutional investment could influence Bitcoin’s long-term performance. 

Hougan argues that different economic conditions may create separate paths toward higher Bitcoin prices. However, inflation concerns and shifting interest rate expectations continue to challenge the broader cryptocurrency market.

Bitwise CIO explains why Bitcoin could win under three economic scenarios

In his weekly CIO memo, Hougan outlined three economic scenarios that he believes could support Bitcoin’s growth.

“There are a lot of different paths for the economy. All of them lead to Bitcoin,” Hougan wrote.

First, Hougan examined a scenario where artificial intelligence dramatically improves productivity and reduces the cost of intelligence.

He argued that investors could increasingly favor scarce assets as AI makes other resources more abundant. Consequently, Bitcoin and gold could attract greater demand as stores of value.

“So in this ‘adventure,’ Bitcoin wins,” he stated.

The second scenario involves an AI market collapse that triggers a broader financial crisis. Hougan compared this possibility to the 2008 financial crisis, citing potential defaults involving data centers and bond insurers.

Although Bitcoin could initially decline alongside risk assets, Hougan expects government intervention to support an eventual recovery.

He suggested that AI’s geopolitical importance makes a government bailout almost certain. Such intervention could expand the money supply and strengthen Bitcoin demand.

Meanwhile, his third scenario assumes moderate economic growth, with GDP rising 3% and interest rates remaining near 4%.

Under these conditions, Hougan expects continued ETF purchases, corporate Bitcoin accumulation, and rising sovereign debt to support prices.

Bitcoin ETF demand faces growing inflation and Federal Reserve risks

Institutional investment remains central to Hougan’s Bitcoin outlook, particularly through US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

These products allow traditional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure without directly managing cryptocurrency wallets.

Hougan also identified corporate treasury holdings and potential sovereign adoption as additional long-term demand drivers.

However, institutional participation carries risks. Investors could withdraw ETF capital during market downturns, while companies might reduce holdings under tighter financing conditions.

Meanwhile, September’s US consumer price index increased 3.7% annually, while core inflation rose 0.3% monthly.

Both figures exceeded expectations, increasing speculation about further Federal Reserve tightening.

Traders subsequently raised the probability of an October 28 rate hike of 25 basis points to 41.5%, from approximately 22%.

Hougan nevertheless believes Bitcoin could benefit from either aggressive monetary tightening followed by stimulus or persistently elevated inflation.

Bitwise Q3 crypto gains strengthen Hougan’s Bitcoin recovery outlook

Hougan also pointed to third-quarter cryptocurrency performance as evidence of improving market conditions.

Bitwise’s large-cap crypto index gained 46.4% during Q3, reflecting a substantial recovery across major digital assets.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $6 billion in net inflows, reversing earlier outflows and restoring positive year-to-date flows.

Despite these improvements, analysts remain divided over whether the cryptocurrency bear market has ended.

CryptoQuant identified a new Bitcoin bull market in September, citing technical indicators and on-chain activity.

However, Bitget analyst Ryan Lee cautioned that the market still needs stronger evidence of a confirmed cycle bottom.

Hougan maintains that institutional adoption, expanding network activity, and long-term monetary trends could support Bitcoin across different economic outcomes.

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His bullish outlook centers on autonomous AI transactions and rising demand for cross-chain settlement services.

However, Hougan believes NEAR’s existing blockchain operations could support its long-term valuation without widespread AI adoption. Meanwhile, Bitwise’s recently launched NEAR ETF offers investors additional exposure to the cryptocurrency.

Bitwise predicts NEAR price could reach $155.85 by 2030

Hougan said Bitwise’s base-case forecast places NEAR at $155.85 by 2030, representing approximately 40-fold growth.

The firm’s optimistic scenario projects $562.81, exceeding a 100-fold increase. However, its bearish outlook suggests NEAR could decline to $1.63.

Hougan argued that even a 40x to 50x increase would leave NEAR’s valuation below Ethereum’s current market capitalization.

Milk Road Crypto questioned whether agentic finance infrastructure could eventually command a valuation comparable to Ethereum’s during a bear market.

Hougan responded that such a comparison was reasonable, given the potential demand for autonomous financial settlement systems.

Bitwise’s base-case model assumes 328 million AI agents complete 1,000 annual transactions, each averaging $5.

The firm applies a 0.3% transaction fee and a 50x valuation multiple to support its projection.

AI Agents could drive NEAR protocol adoption

Hougan believes autonomous AI agents could create additional demand for NEAR’s blockchain infrastructure.

These systems could independently handle payments, trading, service bookings, and digital asset management without direct human involvement.

NEAR Intents supports cross-chain transactions, allowing users and applications to exchange assets without navigating individual blockchain networks.

The protocol’s chain abstraction technology could also help AI agents move funds between applications and settle transactions.

However, Hougan emphasized that NEAR does not need to dominate the emerging AI economy to maintain its investment case.

According to Hougan, NEAR Intents has already processed nearly $30 billion in cross-chain transactions.

He argued that existing network activity provides a foundation for growth even if AI adoption falls short of expectations.

Hougan also identified NEAR among smaller-cap cryptocurrencies offering practical blockchain applications alongside long-term growth potential.

Speaking on The Rollup podcast, Sovereign CEO Sal Ternullo said user activity increasingly appears connected to NEAR’s token value.

Bitwise launches spot NEAR ETF with staking rewards

Bitwise Asset Management launched its spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca in late September under the ticker NRR.

The fund offers US investors regulated exposure to NEAR without requiring direct cryptocurrency ownership or wallet management.

It charges a 0.75% annual management fee and allows investors to earn staking-related returns.

Bitwise’s internal staking team manages the underlying assets, while staking rewards contribute directly to the fund’s net asset value.

On-chain data from September 25 indicated an estimated annual staking yield of 5.3%, although returns remain variable.

According to Bitwise’s prospectus, service providers receive 33% of gross staking rewards, leaving the trust with 67%.

Investors remain exposed to NEAR price fluctuations, changing staking yields, management fees, and staking-related expenses.

Hougan said expanding AI-powered financial activity would increase demand for secure, independent blockchain settlement infrastructure.

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This statement, which came on June 8, follows from the tough situation of crypto allocators. As the Nasdaq-100 rises by 43%, with lots of money being invested in the robotics industry and SpaceX, the appeal of momentum-trading crypto has disappeared. However, according to Hunter Horsley, the change is no reason to stop trading cryptocurrencies. But it does demand a different investing posture. In his post on X, Horsley advised investors to take a step back and not concentrate on the news of the week or the month’s price movements.

Bitwise CEO urges traders to lean more on fundamentals

Horsley urged people to focus on two things – real progress in the project and year-on-year performance of the assets. The Bitwise CEO explained what he meant by “real progress,” namely, on-chain adoption stats, technological products with good product/market fit, integration with corporations and institutions, and the competency of the teams behind the projects. Two days prior, Horsley made a more straightforward point regarding the frustrations of the crypto market.

The author acknowledged that crypto investors are green-eyed with envy towards the profits brought by AI and space technology, but the reality is that the breakthroughs in technology took much longer to accomplish. For example, SpaceX was founded in 2002 and faced numerous failures, while OpenAI was established back in 2015, seven years before ChatGPT became widely known. Horsley pointed out that there is a gap between crypto natives and institutional capital coming into the market.

In his statement, he noted that crypto investors “are not used to an environment in which an hour is fast. A day is fast. A week is a meaningful period of time, and nobody can recall what was going on 4 weeks ago,” quoting an interview with Milk Road on June 5. The institutional capital works to a different timeline and will likely be better suited for the times ahead. That view is consistent with the comments from Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, writing in a market memo on June 2 that crypto was going through “a painful transformation – from momentum trade to contrarian investment.”

Hougan believed that investors’ focus shifted to artificial intelligence stocks, robotics firms, and private companies like SpaceX, leaving crypto to rely on long-term fundamentals rather than momentum-based storytelling. The memo is one of the most prominent admissions from Bitwise yet that the next stage of crypto requires something else beyond speculators’ inflows. According to Hougan, there was evidence that the market had started recognizing value based on fundamentals, not the macro story.

Examples of cryptocurrencies that increased in price by 72%, 50%, 44%, and 17% included Hyperliquid, Zcash, Stellar, and BNB, respectively; none of these assets moved because of the market’s strength. “When crypto stops being a momentum trade, fundamentals start to matter,” Hougan wrote. In addition to the SEC Rule, Hougan pointed out the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, more commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, as another highly significant but unresolved variable for institutional cryptocurrency adoption. The proposed legislation aims to provide greater clarity on the issue of jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC.

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Hougan explained that investors have always turned to gold to protect their wealth, and many now see Bitcoin as a suitable alternative because it is scarce, durable, and well-known worldwide. The Bitwise CIO estimated that gold accounts for about $36 trillion of the $38 trillion store-of-value market, while Bitcoin holds about $1.4 trillion (less than 4% market share). From this point, Hougan says many analysts compare Bitcoin to gold because it also allows investors to store wealth outside of traditional financial systems and has a scarce supply of only 21 million coins.

Bitwise CIO backs Bitcoin to hit $1M

Unlike Gold, Bitcoin exists digitally and can be broken down into extremely small units, allowing investors to move it quickly and easily across the internet. Yet even with these qualities, people struggle to believe in $1 million per Bitcoin because it would take a miracle for the coin to capture more than half of the store-of-value market anytime in the near future. However, Hougan says the store-of-value market will not remain the same.

The Bitwise CIO noted that as global wealth continues to expand, more people seek ways to protect their money. In his memo, Matt Hougan said markets that preserve wealth can expand faster than investors expect, citing that gold’s total value rose from $2.5 trillion in 2004 to about $40 trillion today. This means the value compounded at 13% year after year as demand worldwide grew.

For the past two decades, investors have poured more money into store-of-value assets because government debt has increased in many parts of the world, wars have broken out, and central banks have introduced loose monetary policies that have kept interest rates low. Hougan says the total market could reach $121 trillion over the next 10 years if the store-of-value market continues to expand at the same pace, and Bitcoin would need to capture only about 17% to reach $1 million.

Hougan says investors will only accept that Bitcoin can move from its current 4% to 17% if they focus on how quickly adoption has increased in recent years. More institutional investors have brought new money into Bitcoin over the past few years, and the coin’s long-term volatility has declined when compared to its initial years. Trends in portfolio allocation also reflect changing attitudes.

Hougan highlights risks in the crypto market

In previous years, even a 1% allocation to Bitcoin by professional investors was viewed as aggressive. However, there is now an increasing trend of institutions allocating 5% to Bitcoin in diversified portfolios. Even a small increase in overall allocation levels can generate high demand. Nevertheless, Hougan identifies some risks that may affect these predictions.

First, the store-of-value market may not continue to rise at the pace it has over the last 20 years. Secondly, the economic factors that contributed to gold’s rise in value may not recur. Another possibility is that Bitcoin may not reach the market share necessary to hit these price targets. Adoption may not be rapid enough, or investors may prefer traditional store-of-value assets like gold rather than traditional alternatives.

At the same time, Hougan also warns that these projections may not even be conservative enough. If there is growing concern about government debt or currency stability in the future, investors may require even higher returns from assets known to hold up well in the long run. Then, the growth of the global store-of-value market could accelerate even faster. If such a scenario comes to pass, Bitcoin’s market share will exceed the expected 17% and its value will be further elevated.

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President Trump issued an executive order allowing cryptocurrency to be included in US 401(k) retirement plans. Hougan revealed that, despite the 401(k) institution being slow, it’s moving in that direction to allow allocations to BTC investments. The retirement plan institution manages roughly $12.2 trillion, providing a significant capital inflow into the crypto ecosystem. For instance, a modest 1% allocation could mean roughly $122 billion being directed into the crypto market.

Bitwise CIO likens BTC volatility to stocks

Hougan believes retirement plan institutions are headed toward crypto allocations, with potential inflows expected to arrive late this year due to slow processing across the institutions. If actualized, BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs could greatly benefit, as they are the largest providers of retirement plans. So far, BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has recorded approximately $62.3 billion in cumulative inflows.

Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC has recorded $11.8 billion, based on on-chain data. As of now, Bitcoin ETFs have a cumulative net inflow of $56.5 billion with a total net assets of $118.6 billion. That is roughly 6.5% of BTC’s total supply. The Bitwise CIO highlighted how the legislative landscape will influence the crypto markets this year during an interview with an Investopedia host.

Hougan stated that if the Clarity Act passes, the market is expected to reach new all-time highs across the cryptocurrency landscape. He said the Digital Clarity Act will provide a clear regulatory framework that will attract more institutional capital into the market. Hougan added that he believes more ETFs will be launched this year, noting that the industry needs index-based crypto ETFs.

Criminal charges against Powell stirs the crypto market

He also estimated that the market could attract at least $10 billion into the crypto landscape. He also disclosed that Bitwise is planning to launch index-based exposure ETFs, which will combine exposure to multiple crypto tokens for its customers. When asked about BTC’s 4-year cycle, Hougan said that 2026 will be a ‘negative’ year for Bitcoin.

The Bitwise CIO attributed this to the diminishing significance of Bitcoin’s halvings. So far, not much BTC is being produced, and at the same time, interest rates are reducing. According to Hougan, the 4-year cycle will be broken in 2026 and replaced by a 10-year grind. Meanwhile, the market is uncertain following the Department of Justice in the District of Columbia’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, led by Jeanine Pirro.

Powell defended the Fed, noting that the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on an assessment of what serves the public best rather than the President’s interests. “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions or whether, instead, monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation,” he said.

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On Thursday, the crypto asset management firm submitted a Form S‑1 to launch the “Bitwise Sui ETF,” officially registering the product with the SEC and taking the initial step toward bringing the fund to market. The filing positions the token among digital assets pursuing approval as spot-based investment products in the US. If approved, the ETF would allow investors to gain direct exposure to SUI through regulated markets, without the need to hold the token themselves.

Bitwise lobbies to secure spot SUI ETF approval

The ETF will follow the spot price of SUI (the native token of the Sui Network), according to the filing. Sui is a Layer 1 blockchain, introduced in mid-2023, that aims to accelerate transaction rates and provide scalable digital asset ownership. Meanwhile, Bitwise is yet to select a ticker symbol for the ETF, should it receive approval from the SEC.

Coinbase Custody is expected to serve as the fund’s custodian, continuing its role as a leading provider of crypto ETF services in the United States. Despite the rise in crypto ETFs this year, no asset manager has yet to launch a spot SUI ETF. Other firms are also working to fill that gap, with Canary Capital and 21Shares having filed for spot SUI ETFs in March and April, respectively.

The market is currently talking about these new offerings, particularly the 21Shares application, as the market awaits the SEC’s decision next month. The SEC approved a 21Shares 2x leveraged SUI ETF in early May. A slew of new crypto ETFs have been listed recently, following the regulator’s creation of generic listing standards, which have made it easier for listings to occur across the industry.

Bitwise is also expanding its crypto ETF lineup as the regulatory environment improves. Earlier this month, the firm added SUI to the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The addition signals Bitwise’s increased confidence in the Sui Network’s sustainability. The firm also recently described Sui as a blockchain that accelerates, is private, secure, and facilitates easy digital asset ownership.

It notes that it aligns with Bitwise’s approach of backing networks that can drive genuine adoption at scale. Outside Sui, Bitwise is already selling spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The move solidified its place in the ETF market, with the company also creating its spot XRP ETF this year to broaden its exposure to the highest-value crypto assets.

Bitwise executives are forecasting a surge in crypto ETF launches. Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen, in a recent interview with the Bankless podcast, said the firm is betting on ‘faster growth’ in 2026. He said over 100 crypto ETF products could emerge in rapid succession as issuers scramble for market share. “And now we’re going to accelerate forward at crazy speed,” Rasmussen said.

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The listing is included in the common paperwork in the preparation of clearing and settlement, and is not used to denote that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has given the signal of approval. Upon approval, the ETF will be able to launch but no date has been announced.

Chainlink awaits SEC approval of ETFs.

One of the major developments in the recent past, that was awaited by institutional investors interested in exposure to the Chainlink network, was the impending SEC approval of the Bitwise Chainlink ETF. In case of approval, the fund will open the possibility of massive involvement in LINK, the native token of the Chainlink ecosystem. Market analysts observe that listing of CLNK would increase liquidity and long-term demand of LINK.

Currently, LINK is trading at 15.45, equivalent to a 5% decrease during the last 24 hours and a 19.2% decrease during the last one month. Given the decrease in price, the trading has gone up with the news of the ETFs indicating that there is renewed interest in the trading by both retail and institutional traders.

Coinbase crowned custodian as Altcoin ETFs gather interest.

The Chainlink fund S-1 filing submitted by Bitwise to SEC indicated that Coinbase Custody Trust Company will serve as the custodian to the Chainlink fund. The ETF will enable in-kind creation and redemption so that the investors can trade LINK with fund shares and redeem the token with the fund shares on sale.

Bitwise has also submitted a number of other crypto ETFs that include Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Aptos. The company has a Bitcoin ETF that currently contains more than 40,730 bitcoin worth approximately $2.3 billion and an Ethereum ETF that contains more than 113,605 ETC worth approximately $385 million. The recent Solana Staking ETF released by the company in late October was subscribed to by over $420 million in the first week, which demonstrates that the interest of the investors in the blockchain-related investment items is high.

Increasing industry traffic and XRP ETF listings

The CLNK listing is a part of a larger trend of institutional interest in blockchain ETFs. Grayscale has also submitted a spot Chainlink ETF to trade underGLNK on NYSE Arca pending approval.

In the meantime, the DTCC has issued five XRP ETFs over the last few months with issuers including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Canary Capital and CoinShares. Such funds are in the pre-launch stage and are awaiting SEC approval. After the DTCC listings, XRP surged by 12% before falling back to its position of $2.40, a 3.33% drop in a day.

Experts in the industry such as Bloomberg Intelligence, Eric Balchunas, observe that a majority of the funds that have made it to the DTCC phase ultimately become funds as long as the regulatory environment is good. With the SEC reducing the time it takes to review the procedures in the current U.S. government shutdown, analysts expect that approvals may occur shortly after the operations get back to normal. Bitwise Chainlink ETF appearance in DTCC demonstrates the increasing institutional support of the digit asset investment products.

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In the report, the SEC mentioned that it needs more time to look into the proposals and the issues they raised. This is coming after its previous extensions and formal proceedings that started as far back as May.

SEC pushes Bitwise and 21Shares SOL ETF verdict

According to the statement from the SEC, the agency noted that it invoked its full 60-day extension authority, following an earlier delay in March and the initiation of formal proceedings in May. In its latest notice, it cited the need to thoroughly assess broader market implications, regulatory compliance, and investor protection measures before taking any final action.

The standard public comment period and review process kicked off after both entities submitted their first applications on January 28, 2025, and the filings were published in the Federal Register on February 18, 2025. To meet the agency’s expectations for transparency, market integrity, and protection against potential manipulation, both firms updated their filings to align more closely with SEC requirements.

The updates showed that both Bitwise and 21Shares want to provide a strong framework for a Solana-based ETF that could operate safely in the U.S. market while responding to regulatory concerns. The ongoing debate about whether Solana should be classified as a security or a commodity continues to influence the SEC’s cautious approach. Analysts have also pointed out the concentration of control among a small number of network participants and the maturity of the Solana network as other determining factors.

As the SEC carefully evaluates each proposal’s regulatory, technical, and market-related aspects, the applications of Grayscale, Fidelity, ProShares, and Canary Funds for Solana ETFs face similar delays. The repeated delays show that the SEC weighs factors such as market integrity, investor protection, and the proper classification of Solana as a security or commodity before approval.

Meanwhile, the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, said it has no interest in the Solana market because it’s satisfied with its existing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Analysts say BlackRock’s choice could influence how other large managers approach the Solana ETF market in the future. It may also reflect the firm’s assessment of Solana’s relative risk compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

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All the products are issued and regulated in Germany, complying with the requirements in the Euro Area. The ETPs are designed to fit the demand of institutional investors, with the products issued by Bitwise Europe GMBH under German law.

“I am very pleased to see the debut listings of Bitwise products on the London Stock Exchange, one of Europe’s most esteemed trading venues. We will continue to innovate our product range, in dialogue with investors to bring products that suit their needs in this rapidly developing asset class,” said Bradley Duke, Managing director and Head of Europe at Bitwise.

The London market operator will host the BTC1, BTCE, ZETH, and ETH32, a product linked to Ethereum staking with added custody and rewards. The funds are restricted to wholesale investors, offering a mix of liquidity and low fees. Bitwise has offered BTCE for over five years, turning it into one of the most liquid Bitcoin-based products for the European market.

Bitwise offers liquidity funds in BTC and ETH

The ETPs will offer varying investment profiles for institutional investors looking to allocate funds to crypto. The Core Bitcoin ETP (BTC1) offers the lowest total expense ratio of 0.20% per year, designed for long-term investors. The Physical Bitcoin ETP (BTCE) has the highest liquidity level from the German trading platform XETRA, and is still one of the largest BTC products in Europe based on assets under management.

The Physical Ethereum ETP (ZETH) will offer exposure and institutional-grade custody, while the Ethereum Staking ETP (ET32) will offer a low-cost and daily accumulation of staking rewards. The new offerings will be settled and traded in cash, through USD and GBP.

Bitwise carries out its operations as a pure crypto entity, using its public wallets for some of the available ETFs. The fund carries 37.56K ETF in some of its known addresses, taking care of redemptions and transfers to Coinbase Prime for swapping. The ETPs are also adapted to traditional finance can be integrated into ETF portfolio accounts, and are compatible with the UK investment regulations.

The Bitwise products include a crypto index fund, tapping Uniswap (UNI), and Lido (LDO). The recent expansion of the LSE takes into account the more conservative venue, only offering fully regulated ETPs, linked to the most liquid assets.

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The companies that will be considered include mining entities with big reserves to other companies copying the model adopted by firms like Strategy. The minimal treasury will be 1,000 BTC, as Bitwise will categorize the firms under the ‘Bitcoin standards corporations.

Bitwise already offers eight ETFs based on tokens, baskets, and trends. This newest fund, known as the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF, will choose from the top firms with Bitcoin treasuries. According to Bitwise, it is trying to move away from companies that have left holding corporate bonds as reserves. The fund was launched on March 10, with no assets presently under management since it launched. The fund is under the OWNB ticker and currently sells for $22.

Bitwise leans on Strategy to launch new ETF

The new ETF will lean heavily on companies that own BTC, with Microstrategy owning the biggest share with 20%. The other company holding a significant share is Mara Holdings with 12%, while the rest of the shares are split among other mining companies. Other notable companies include Metaplanet, Clean Spark, and Galaxy Digital.

The Bitwise OWNB ETF includes about 21 entities with their shares determined by how much Bitcoin they hold. Tesla is also included, with the firm owning about 1.27%. The company also added that they were looking into forward-thinking firms that value BTC. The new ETF stock selection has drawn criticism because some of these companies often sell some of their BTC to fund their operations.

According to Bitwise’s estimation, public companies hold 591,817 BTC. Other estimates are for a total of 3.09B, spread among 164 companies. The Bitwise estimation counts the more sizable BTC treasuries above 1,000 BTC, and the ETF is a narrower selection of that subset. BTC miners have suffered losses in their stocks over the last 30 days, showing the competitive nature of the industry. With difficulty increasing and Bitcoin’s price dropping, most of these miners are operating at a loss.

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